Past prediction results

See also Long-term predictions

The Chinese Almanac includes predictions about weather patterns, health problems, environmental, agricultural and natural disasters, and general trends for the coming year. Here's a list of predictions that have come true so far:

From the 2005 almanac

New "This winter (2005-2006) will be warmer than average winters. [It] will be disappointing for people who enjoy winter activities. The weather will be warm and cold." (A combination of hot and cold trends usually results in a mixed pattern: warm days with cool nights, high temperature readings but cold winds, alternating periods of hot and cold weather, etc.)
Winter was unusually warm in most of North America and Russia, about average in Eastern Asia, but colder than average in Europe. Precipitation was high in Russia, average in Europe, somewhat lower than average in North America and rather low in Eastern Asia. Snow was heavy only in Russia. Reported in January 2006.

New "Autumn will be warm. Snow isn't likely to fall in northern climates. The weather will be predominantly windy and dry." October and November were mostly dry in Europe, Russia, Eastern Asia and parts of the USA. Temperatures were on the warm side in North America, Europe and Russia, about average in China and Eastern Asia. Reported in October and November 2005.

New "[August and September] will be dominated by cold and damp weather. ... Ice pellets... may cause severe damage to the fall harvest." Overall, the weather was mostly hot in North America and Russia, average to cool in Europe and Eastern Asia. There was much precipitation in most areas at various times. Drought areas, however, remained mostly dry. Reported in September 2005.

New "[June and July] will be dominated by dryness, coolness and heat." (A combination of hot and cold trends usually results in a mixed pattern: warm days with cool nights, high temperature readings but cold winds, alternating periods of hot and cold weather, etc.)
Conditions were generally hot and dry in most areas, although cold weather has been reported in parts of Eastern Europe and Russia, and heavy rainfall and even flooding occurred in parts of Canada, the USA, Eastern Europe, China and Japan. Reported in July 2005.

New "[In April and May,] it will become warm instantly. There will be much less rain than in previous months."
The weather was mild throughout the USA and temperatures were above average in much of Europe, most of Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine, Northwestern Africa, and Eastern Asia. Dampness and precipitation ranged from low to normal in most areas. Reported in May 2005.

New "Spring will not arrive early. The weather will be predominantly cold, damp and windy."
Cold weather persisted, and spring arrived late, in much of the USA, Canada, the European Union, Western Russia and Eastern Europe. Cool spells occurred in parts of the Middle East. Soggy soil conditions hampered fieldwork in many regions. Reported in March and April 2005.

"The first half of the year will be cooler and drier than average"
Colder than average weather, sometimes reaching record lows, has been reported in parts of Canada and the USA, much of Europe, Latvia, southern and central Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus, Afghanistan, parts of India and Pakistan, northern China, Taiwan, Japan and North Africa. Unusual dryness was reported in central and northern Spain and Portugal, southern France, parts of Turkey and southern Morocco, with droughts in Thailand, Cambodia, Cuba and parts of the USA. Reported in March 2005.

From the 2004 almanac

"... oranges and tangerines will have a good harvest"
Taiwan citrus growers had a bumper harvest. The overproduction drove prices down so much that it wiped out all the profit (reported in late 2004).

"Winged animals and insects will not grow well in 2005"
The population of monarch butterflies wintering in Mexico is at its lowest point ever (reported in Feb. 2005).

"Heavy rains, fog, mist and soggy soil may lead to poor harvests"
Soggy harvest conditions took their toll on grain harvests in the Canadian Prairies region, and harvested acreage was down in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (reported in Dec. 2004).

"Real estate... and everything in the construction business will reach the height of oversupply of a ten-year cycle"
New home prices have gone up substantially (reported in Dec. 2004).

"E. Coli-related gastrointestinal infections will spread easily"
(predicted for July 22-August 7, 2004) Gastrointesinal infections caused by E. Coli reported in Ontario, Quebec and Hong Kong since July 22.

"Severe storms, tornadoes and typhoons will form easily, which will cause dams to burst"
Severe storms, tornadoes and typhoons in many parts of the world since May 2004.

"Fires may occur often in the first half of the year, floods from tornadoes and typhoons may occur in the middle and second half of year"
4 to 5 times more fires than average on the west coast of North America (May-June 2004). Numerous floods in Canada, Haiti, China, Taiwan, India, Greece, Japan, Mexico, England, the Dominican Republic, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, the USA and elsewhere since February 2004.

"Electronics and high technology, electricity ... will be neither in overdemand nor in oversupply"
Nasdaq has gone up and down, but there has been no significant change in value since the beginning of 2004.

"Any metal, welding and jewelry business ... will be neither in overdemand nor in oversupply. However, Metal-element products will be in greater demand than Fire-element products"
The price of precious and other metals has also gone up and down, like Nasdaq, but they are generally doing better than high-tech stocks.

"Fuels will be in strong demand"
The price of gasoline has reached a 10-year high in May, 2004.

"A warm spell comes in early spring"
Many countries in the northern hemisphere had numerous days of double-digit temperatures in February and March, 2004.

"Winter will not disappoint those who enjoy cold weather activities"
Ski resorts and vendors of winter sports equipment thrived this year (reported in February 2004).

From the 2003 almanac

"Winter will not disappoint those who enjoy cold weather activities"
February 2004 Ski resorts and vendors of winter sports equipment thrived this year.

"Dehumidifiers, heaters and vacations to warm destinations will likely be in demand because of the cold and damp weather"
January 2004 The general demand for heaters and vacations has drastically increased.

"Horses and winged animals (i.e., birds, chickens, ducks, turkeys, geese) won't grow well and will be less healthy"
(in Notes on the 2003 almanac)
January 2004 Since December 2003, the bird flu epidemic has struck millions of chickens, ducks and geese in Asia.

"This year's winter will be much colder than average"
January 2004 The temperature dropped to 1.6C in Hong Kong and 6C in Taiwan. This caused snow in Taiwan and frost in Hong Kong, both of which are very rare occurrences there. Extremely cold weather, often including record lows, in Great Britain, France, Romania (at least 60 dead), Turkey, Siberia and Bangladesh.

"This year's winter will be much colder than average"
December 2003 Winter has been very harsh in many countries, with temperatures dropping to record lows. In Canada, several big cities have had temperatures of -20C to -30C. Hong Kong and Taiwan had a record 7C, the lowest temperature in the last 54 years. India had a low of 12C, which is a rare occurrence.

"Electricity will likely be in demand"
Many countries in the world have experienced severe power shortages: China (during much of 2003 and expected to continue throughout 2004), Japan (summer 2003), as well as the more publicized ones in Canada and the USA.

"Frost and Snow will arrive earlier"
Some cities in Canada, China and Europe have already had their first major snow recently (Oct-Nov 2003), which is about 2-3 weeks earlier than in average years.

"Frequent rain may cause floods"
A severe flood occurred in Indonesia in early November 2003, causing hundreds of deaths.

"Frequent rain may cause floods"
Floods occurred in British Columbia, Canada, in October 2003.

"The weather will change from warm to cold right away after Autumn Equinox"
The temperature has been dropping dramatically since the Autumn Equinox. Frost and light snow arrived in early October.

"Red colored crops (e.g., tomatoes, red peppers, watermelon, red beans) in particular will not ripen."
There has been a shortage of many red crops in the supermarket this year.

ìFrequent rain may cause floodsî
Heavy rain, the result of tropical storms, has caused floods in Mexico, the USA, China, India and Korea in September.

"There will be heat waves everywhere -- it will feel like living in a heated oven"
There have been severe heat waves in Europe and Asia this summer. The average temperature in those areas is 5°C to 8°C higher than regular summers.

"Wood and lumber will be in demand"
(in Notes on the 2003 almanac)
The price and demand for wood are at the highest points of the past 12 months (July, 2003).

"Frequent rain may cause floods"
There is severe flooding in central and eastern China (July 7, 2003).

"Electronics and high technology... will likely be in demand"
NASDAQ has had the biggest gains this year.

"Epidemic diseases will likely taper off after May 21, 2003"
(predicted on the "Weather" page in March, 2003)
It has been reported that the number of worldwide cases of SARS is diminishing.

"Frequent rain may cause floods"
Severe flooding has occurred in Sri Lanka and southern China. Homes and thousands of acres of crops have been inundated. (For more information on floods, see Dartmouth College's Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events.)

"Frequent rains may stifle growth"
Many farmers have already reported that overly moist soil has caused great difficulties with seeding.

"Fuels will be in less demand than in 2002"
due to the quick end of the war in Iraq, fuel prices have dropped significantly.

"Health products and pharmaceuticals will be in greater demand"
(in Notes on the 2003 almanac)
Due to the outbreak of SARS, many pharmaceutical drugs, nutritional supplements, herbs and other health related products (i.e., masks and gloves) have been in short supply, even out of stock.

"Real estate will likely be in oversupply"
Vacancy rates are going up world-wide; in spite of this, real estate prices are continuously rising in some countries.

"Anxiety and fearfulness will dominate the year"
due to the war in Iraq and the outbreak of SARS.

"Dead fish will float on rivers, lakes and ashore after heavy rains"
Thousands of cod have washed ashore in Newfoundland in early 2003.

"Shipping and transportation will be in less demand"
(in Notes on the 2003 almanac)
Many airline companies around the world are having financial difficulties.

"Frequent rain may cause floods"
The sudden rise in temperature in spring has quickly melted the snow, which has caused some flooding in several cities.

"Epidemic diseases may be widespread"
SARS atypical pneumonia has spread quickly from southeast Asia to North America, Europe and Australia.

"Spring will arrive on time"
Although groundhog Phil, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, has seen his shadow on February 2nd, 2003 -- an indication that there will not be an early Spring -- warm spring weather has already arrived.

Long-term predictions

The 2005 edition of The Chinese Almanac contains predictions about major trends that affect the world from 2004 to 2023 (this corresponds to one period of a 180-year cycle). Although it's far too early to tell how these predictions are turning out, we thought it might be interesting to start tracking the relevant trends.

This period will be dominated by young men.
The previous period, from 1984 to 2003, saw more female politicians, heads of state, CEOs, professors, lawyers, doctors and other professionals than any other time. In the current period, however, there will be fewer female leaders. Perhaps the following are early indicators of this trend:

• Carly Fiorina, head of Hewlett-Packard until Feb. 2005
• Megawati Sukarnoputri, president of Indonesia until Oct. 2004
• Mireya Moscoso, president of Panama until Sept. 2004

Many conflicts, including those in the Middle East, will come to a relative standstill.
Much progress has been made in the Middle East in the last few months. India and China have started resolving the Himalayan border dispute.

There will be more democracy and fewer warlords, dictators and military leaders.
We may be seeing the very early stages of this trend with the passing of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and the softened stand of Lybian leader Moammar Gadhafi.

... this period is one of moderation and unification.
US President Bush announced a major change in policy towards Iran, joining the European Union in attempting to resolve the issue through diplomacy. The shape of things to come?